Tue, Feb 19, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Detroit Red Wings 3, Nashville Predators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 07 | 211 | 00 | 329 |
| NSH | 28 | 012 | 14 | 11 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:01NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Colin Wilson, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 10:41NSHGabriel BourqueAssists: Scott Hannan, Mike Fisher · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 15:01DETDaniel ClearySHAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 11:33DETJordin TootooAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Jakub Kindl · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 12:54NSHRoman JosiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 13:30DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Daniel Cleary, Jonas Gustavsson · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 0:44NSHShea WeberGWGAssists: Colin Wilson, Sergei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:39DETJakub Kindl: Interference2 min
- P1 4:15DETJakub Kindl: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 5:43NSHRich Clune: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:04DETJonas Gustavsson: Delaying game2 min
- P1 15:48DETJakub Kindl: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:42DETValtteri Filppula: Holding2 min
- P2 16:26DETDamien Brunner: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:35NSHNick Spaling: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Datsyuk – Abdelkader9:14
xG 0.77–0.09 (89%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Miller – Emmerton8:33
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Brunner10:10
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Eaves – Andersson – Tatar5:14
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 3–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Lashoff10:37
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Quincey – Kindl5:22
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- White – Ericsson2:00
xG 0.23–0.09 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestClune – Halischuk – Spaling6:50
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Fisher – Hornqvist – Bourque9:17
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Legwand – Erat – Wilson9:47
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Yip – Kostitsyn – Smith6:26
xG 0.13–0.60 (18%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hannan – Ellis7:58
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi14:47
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 12–20goals 1–0
- Blum – Ellis2:18
xG 0.01–0.16 (6%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).