Tue, Feb 19, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Los Angeles Kings 3, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 08 | 115 | 215 | 338 |
| EDM | 09 | 18 | 07 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:44LAKColin FraserAssists: Trevor Lewis, Jordan Nolan · Snap, 0.50 xG1–0
- P2 16:50EDMSam GagnerPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 19:10LAKJeff CarterGWGAssists: Trevor Lewis, Davis Drewiske · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 19:38LAKJarret StollENAssists: Dwight King, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.60 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:12LAKJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:44EDMJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:31LAKColin Fraser: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:32EDMNail Yakupov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:38LAKJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:00LAKDavis Drewiske: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Belanger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar13:41
xG 0.74–0.18 (80%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Fraser – Lewis – Nolan6:02
xG 0.99–0.46 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Stoll – Penner – King10:38
xG 0.50–0.30 (62%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – Clifford11:05
xG 0.40–0.48 (45%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Voynov18:23
xG 1.52–0.38 (80%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Drewiske – Doughty2:16
xG 0.60–0.02 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Drewiske5:51
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBelanger – Eager – Paajarvi3:09
xG 0.16–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Hartikainen – Paajarvi2:44
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Smyth – Belanger – Eager4:06
xG 0.05–0.13 (26%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Yakupov3:17
xG 0.03–0.14 (19%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhitney – Smid13:00
xG 0.70–0.55 (56%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Fistric – Petry16:50
xG 0.56–0.67 (45%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
- Schultz – Schultz14:51
xG 0.38–1.42 (21%)attempts 11–20goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).