Wed, Feb 20, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 215 | 19 | 38 | 632 |
| PIT | 213 | 09 | 310 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:07PITMatt NiskanenAssists: Kris Letang · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 7:15PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Paul Martin, James Neal · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 11:49PHINicklas GrossmannAssists: Mike Knuble, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P1 12:49PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Daniel Brière, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- P2 19:50PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 0:18PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Braydon Coburn, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 5:29PITTyler KennedyAssists: Paul Martin, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 7:36PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Max Talbot, Bruno Gervais · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–3
- P3 12:46PITJames NealPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.17 xG5–4
- P3 17:57PITBrandon SutterAssists: Paul Martin, Matt Cooke · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–5
- P3 18:29PHIJakub VoracekGWGAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.03 xG6–5
Penalties (19)
- P1 5:20PHIHarry Zolnierczyk: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:15PITDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:15PITMatt Cooke: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 13:15PHIJakub Voracek: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 13:28PITTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:28PHIBrayden Schenn: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:28PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:20PHIZac Rinaldo: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:20PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:45PHISean Couturier: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:24PITJames Neal: Interference2 min
- P2 18:28PITCraig Adams: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:14PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:14PHISean Couturier: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:14PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:56PITTanner Glass: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 11:36PHIMike Knuble: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 12:17PHIRuslan Fedotenko: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:52PHIMax Talbot: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Simmonds – Schenn5:34
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
- Knuble – Talbot – Couturier7:26
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Fedotenko – Rinaldo – Zolnierczyk5:21
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Brière – Giroux – Voracek2:01
xG 0.02–0.13 (12%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Schenn8:29
xG 0.59–0.28 (67%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Gervais – Gustafsson7:57
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Coburn – Grossmann13:39
xG 0.86–0.93 (48%)attempts 13–15goals 3–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKennedy – Sutter – Bennett4:30
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Cooke – Malkin – Neal6:34
xG 0.26–0.14 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale3:04
xG 0.01–0.28 (5%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby8:59
xG 0.54–1.00 (35%)attempts 10–10goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Engelland – Bortuzzo4:03
xG 0.04–0.03 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Orpik – Martin10:09
xG 0.65–0.79 (45%)attempts 11–9goals 1–2
- Niskanen – Letang10:58
xG 0.45–0.84 (35%)attempts 11–11goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).