Wed, Feb 20, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Los Angeles Kings 3, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 211 | 012 | 110 | 333 |
| CGY | 18 | 07 | 012 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:15LAKDustin BrownAssists: Anze Kopitar, Rob Scuderi · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 14:51CGYTJ BrodieAssists: Jarome Iginla, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P1 15:20LAKTrevor LewisGWGAssists: Jeff Carter, Rob Scuderi · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 9:27LAKJeff CarterAssists: Mike Richards, Kyle Clifford · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:58LAKSlava Voynov: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:58CGYMichael Cammalleri: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:28LAKTrevor Lewis: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 5:56LAKColin Fraser: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:56CGYJarome Iginla: Interference2 min
- P2 8:42CGYChris Butler: Holding2 min
- P2 16:44LAKDavis Drewiske: Interference2 min
- P3 0:41LAKJustin Williams: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:26LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar10:24
xG 0.79–0.44 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Stoll – Penner – King8:56
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan4:28
xG 0.03–0.08 (24%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – Lewis11:09
xG 0.54–0.64 (46%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDrewiske – Doughty3:11
xG 0.22–0.06 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ellerby – Drewiske4:18
xG 0.26–0.10 (71%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Doughty14:13
xG 0.67–0.62 (52%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Stempniak – Glencross10:37
xG 0.52–0.42 (55%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Hudler – Comeau – Horak3:27
xG 0.04–0.02 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Begin – Jackman – Comeau3:42
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Iginla – Tanguay – Cammalleri13:20
xG 0.48–0.63 (43%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Giordano12:02
xG 0.65–0.23 (74%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Brodie2:45
xG 0.10–0.09 (54%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Wideman – Bouwmeester2:54
xG 0.02–0.03 (34%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).