Thu, Feb 21, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 5, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 310 | 18 | 18 | 526 |
| PHI | 013 | 09 | 212 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:15FLAPeter MuellerAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Mike Weaver · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 8:44FLATomas KopeckyAssists: Mike Weaver · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 10:15FLAJonathan HuberdeauGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.24 xG3–0
- P2 11:46FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Drew Shore, Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–0
- P3 13:49PHILuke SchennAssists: Daniel Brière, Wayne Simmonds · Slap, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 14:33FLAPeter MuellerAssists: Drew Shore, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–1
- P3 15:35PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Claude Giroux · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:29FLATomas Kopecky: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:15PHIKimmo Timonen: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P2 7:21PHILuke Schenn: Boarding2 min
- P2 9:58PHIRuslan Fedotenko: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:11PHIDaniel Brière: Interference2 min
- P2 15:57PHINicklas Grossmann: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:57FLAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:53FLAShawn Matthias: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Fedotenko
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMueller – Shore – Huberdeau11:54
xG 1.14–0.45 (72%)attempts 18–16goals 2–0
- Parros – Smithson – Santorelli5:53
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Weiss – Fleischmann9:52
xG 0.12–0.38 (24%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Goc – Skille – Matthias10:40
xG 0.09–0.66 (12%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Weaver15:52
xG 0.87–0.52 (63%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Kuba – Strachan15:10
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 8–21goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Gudbranson11:20
xG 0.31–0.76 (29%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Simmonds – Schenn10:54
xG 0.83–0.37 (69%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – McGinn13:30
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 21–7goals 1–1
- Knuble – Talbot – Couturier10:40
xG 0.36–0.61 (37%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Fedotenko – Rinaldo – Zolnierczyk6:29
xG 0.01–0.30 (5%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGervais – Gustafsson15:49
xG 1.04–0.30 (77%)attempts 25–10goals 1–0
- Timonen – Schenn15:01
xG 0.68–0.54 (56%)attempts 26–9goals 1–1
- Coburn – Gustafsson2:08
xG 0.09–0.10 (49%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).