Thu, Feb 21, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
New Jersey Devils 3, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 013 | 19 | 215 | 337 |
| WSH | 04 | 212 | 03 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:28WSHMathieu PerreaultPPAssists: Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 11:16NJDPatrik EliasSHAssists: Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 12:40WSHMike RibeiroPPAssists: Troy Brouwer, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 9:19NJDAndrei LoktionovAssists: Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–2
- P3 11:40NJDIlya KovalchukPPGWGAssists: Patrik Elias, Marek Zidlicky · Slap, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 11:49NJDStefan Matteau: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:39WSHMathieu Perreault: Holding2 min
- P1 19:27NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:43NJDAnton Volchenkov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:56NJDMarek Zidlicky: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:16NJDAdam Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:16WSHNicklas Backstrom: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:55WSHMatt Hendricks: Holding2 min
- P3 3:09WSHTomas Kundratek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:52WSHAlex Ovechkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:59WSHJohn Erskine: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:51WSHTom Poti: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00WSHTroy Brouwer: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Kovalchuk – Zajac7:41
xG 0.66–0.10 (87%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Elias – Clarkson – Zajac2:02
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Barch – Loktionov – Butler4:15
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Matteau4:56
xG 0.10–0.07 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Zidlicky12:16
xG 0.59–0.19 (76%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson8:50
xG 0.49–0.10 (83%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Volchenkov8:09
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Hendricks – Crabb – Beagle5:31
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Ward – Fehr – Perreault7:01
xG 0.03–0.19 (14%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Wolski – Brouwer – Backstrom5:39
xG 0.15–0.34 (31%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ribeiro – Ovechkin10:27
xG 0.28–0.97 (22%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Poti – Schultz8:26
xG 0.12–0.15 (44%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Alzner – Kundratek12:59
xG 0.26–0.66 (29%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Erskine – Carlson13:15
xG 0.21–1.14 (15%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).