Thu, Feb 21, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Winnipeg Jets 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 18 | 06 | 39 | 423 |
| CAR | 110 | 08 | 212 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:53WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 18:39CARJiri TlustyAssists: Alexander Semin, Eric Staal · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 2:10WPGEvander KaneAssists: Nik Antropov · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 3:37CARJordan StaalAssists: Jay Harrison, Patrick Dwyer · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 14:03WPGAndrew LaddUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 14:50CARJiri TlustyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 15:06WPGBlake WheelerGWGAssists: Andrew Ladd, Bryan Little · Snap, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:36CARMichal Jordan: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P1 6:58WPGGrant Clitsome: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:43WPGBlake Wheeler: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 4:48WPGGrant Clitsome: Interference2 min
- P2 16:26CARJay Harrison: Interference2 min
- P2 17:15CARJoe Corvo: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:02CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:02CAREric Staal: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little10:27
xG 1.31–0.33 (80%)attempts 16–10goals 3–1
- Wellwood – Tangradi – Burmistrov2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Wright7:38
xG 0.09–0.20 (31%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Wright – Kane2:00
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Postma10:07
xG 0.98–0.83 (54%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Clitsome13:53
xG 0.44–0.42 (52%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1
- Hainsey – Bogosian15:48
xG 0.27–0.35 (43%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Nodl – Wallace7:18
xG 0.52–0.24 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty13:37
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- LaRose – Westgarth – Nash4:33
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Staal – Bowman10:01
xG 0.51–1.09 (32%)attempts 10–10goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestSanguinetti – Faulk3:24
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Corvo – Faulk15:50
xG 1.02–1.05 (49%)attempts 16–17goals 1–2
- Sanguinetti – Jordan5:59
xG 0.06–0.09 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).