Thu, Feb 21, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Islanders 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 03 | 212 | 18 | 12 | 425 |
| MTL | 214 | 114 | 04 | 01 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:49MTLTravis MoenAssists: Colby Armstrong · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 11:02MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: David Desharnais, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 0:34NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Mark Streit, Lubomir Visnovsky · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 8:30MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 16:57NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: John Tavares, Brad Boyes · Snap, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 9:51NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Josh Bailey, Evgeni Nabokov · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 3:12NYIThomas HickeyGWGAssists: Michael Grabner, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:41NYILubomir Visnovsky: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:29MTLLars Eller: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:57MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:57NYIJoe Finley: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:57NYIJoe Finley: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:32MTLDavid Desharnais: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:57MTLRyan White: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:05NYIBrad Boyes: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:01MTLTomas Plekanec: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:28MTLLars Eller: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:28NYIKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:52NYIMark Streit: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:03NYILubomir Visnovsky: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – Okposo – Grabner9:01
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares14:40
xG 0.55–0.61 (47%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Nielsen – Bailey8:56
xG 0.21–0.41 (34%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas6:56
xG 0.07–0.35 (16%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Hamonic9:09
xG 0.39–0.17 (69%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey12:25
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – MacDonald2:26
xG 0.13–0.02 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCole – Desharnais – Pacioretty10:48
xG 0.64–0.20 (76%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bourque10:04
xG 0.64–0.54 (54%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Moen – Armstrong – White8:34
xG 0.10–0.01 (89%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Prust – Eller – Galchenyuk10:11
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Subban15:20
xG 0.75–0.28 (73%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Markov – Emelin13:18
xG 0.76–0.67 (53%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Gorges – Emelin2:45
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).