Thu, Feb 21, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 18 | 07 | 29 | 324 |
| DET | 27 | 011 | 012 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:18DETDamien BrunnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 2:40DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Brian Lashoff, Henrik Zetterberg · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 4:23CBJR.J. UmbergerPPAssists: Cam Atkinson, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 5:03CBJDerek DorsettAssists: Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–2
- P3 19:35CBJVinny ProspalGWGAssists: James Wisniewski, Derek Dorsett · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:57CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:57DETJordin Tootoo: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P1 3:57DETJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:57DETJordin Tootoo: Misconduct10 min
- P1 7:07CBJColton Gillies: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:09DETDaniel Cleary: Interference2 min
- P1 19:37DETJan Mursak: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:18CBJDerek Dorsett: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 2:18DETJonathan Ericsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 9:40CBJFedor Tyutin: Interference2 min
- P3 8:56CBJDerek Dorsett: Interference2 min
- P3 10:47CBJDerek MacKenzie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Brassard – Atkinson8:55
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Prospal – Dorsett – Letestu9:24
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Gillies4:30
xG 0.03–0.02 (63%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Foligno – Calvert3:10
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Erixon11:13
xG 0.87–0.12 (88%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Aucoin – Johnson13:37
xG 0.32–0.33 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Tyutin – Nikitin18:05
xG 0.35–0.52 (40%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Datsyuk – Abdelkader11:07
xG 0.42–0.31 (58%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Mursak – Andersson – Tatar6:02
xG 0.07–0.03 (69%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Miller – Emmerton6:52
xG 0.03–0.27 (9%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Brunner11:26
xG 0.36–0.85 (30%)attempts 9–11goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Lashoff2:36
xG 0.24–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 2–0
- Kronwall – Lashoff2:52
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Huskins – Ericsson2:25
xG 0.08–0.02 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).