Thu, Feb 21, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Minnesota Wild 3, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 03 | 116 | 29 | 328 |
| EDM | 08 | 110 | 010 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:26EDMRyan SmythAssists: Eric Belanger, Ben Eager · Wrap-around, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 15:02MINMatt CullenAssists: Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 2:20MINDevin SetoguchiGWGAssists: Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P3 13:59MINMatt CullenAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P2 6:45EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:02MINDany Heatley: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:47EDMTheo Peckham: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:27EDMTaylor Hall: Kneeing5 min
- P3 17:27EDMTaylor Hall: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Belanger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Koivu – Parise14:47
xG 1.01–0.58 (63%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Bouchard – Brodziak – Clutterbuck11:39
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Cullen – Setoguchi – Zucker9:01
xG 0.60–0.68 (47%)attempts 8–14goals 2–1
- Rupp – Mitchell – Granlund7:02
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin18:51
xG 1.13–0.53 (68%)attempts 23–14goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Prosser10:01
xG 0.59–0.18 (77%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Suter – Stoner3:00
xG 0.13–0.40 (25%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins12:57
xG 0.67–0.40 (62%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Yakupov7:36
xG 0.27–0.12 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins3:05
xG 0.17–0.04 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Smyth – Belanger – Eager10:10
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Fistric – Peckham12:24
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Smid – Petry17:13
xG 0.54–0.63 (46%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Peckham – Schultz2:24
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).