Fri, Feb 22, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 03 | 110 | 010 | 123 |
| PIT | 012 | 115 | 213 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:25FLAMike WeaverAssists: Brian Campbell · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 10:41PITChris KunitzPPAssists: James Neal, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.36 xG1–1
- P3 7:49PITMatt NiskanenGWGAssists: Kris Letang · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 15:15PITDustin JeffreyAssists: Matt Cooke, Tyler Kennedy · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:46FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Holding2 min
- P1 11:53PITMarc-Andre Fleury: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:24FLAPeter Mueller: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:23FLAJerred Smithson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:15PITTyler Kennedy: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:25FLATomas Kopecky: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestKovalev – Smithson – Santorelli4:26
xG 0.34–0.11 (76%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Mueller – Shore – Huberdeau8:48
xG 0.64–0.42 (60%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Kopecky – Weiss – Fleischmann7:50
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Goc – Skille – Matthias7:52
xG 0.11–0.51 (18%)attempts 2–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Gudbranson13:37
xG 0.61–0.53 (54%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Campbell – Kulikov2:52
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Campbell – Weaver14:11
xG 0.54–0.57 (49%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby7:33
xG 0.43–0.05 (90%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Crosby2:09
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Cooke – Dupuis – Jeffrey3:29
xG 0.16–0.09 (65%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Crosby2:14
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Engelland2:41
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Orpik – Letang3:59
xG 0.21–0.03 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Letang – Despres5:35
xG 0.25–0.13 (65%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).