Fri, Feb 22, 2013·United Center, Chicago
San Jose Sharks 1, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 18 | 06 | 013 | 127 |
| CHI | 011 | 110 | 113 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:45SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.39 xG1–0
- P2 16:40CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Patrick Kane, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 2:24CHIBrandon SaadSHGWGAssists: Michal Rozsival, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P2 1:53SJSMichal Handzus: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:53SJSTJ Galiardi: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:58CHIDave Bolland: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:07CHIMichal Rozsival: Holding2 min
- P3 0:27CHIBrent Seabrook: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:21CHIBryan Bickell: Interference2 min
- P3 19:51CHIAndrew Shaw: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:51SJSRyane Clowe: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:51SJSRyane Clowe: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Clowe – Couture11:53
xG 0.91–0.21 (81%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski9:47
xG 0.66–0.14 (83%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Handzus – Kennedy – Wingels9:21
xG 0.07–0.36 (17%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Burish – Desjardins – Galiardi5:15
xG 0.01–0.44 (3%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Vlasic12:43
xG 0.98–0.42 (70%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Stuart – Burns14:15
xG 0.60–0.29 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Boyle – Stuart2:11
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad9:56
xG 0.55–0.14 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Bickell – Stalberg – Shaw7:07
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Carcillo – Frolik – Kruger4:56
xG 0.09–0.04 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Sharp – Kane – Kruger3:48
xG 0.11–0.08 (59%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Leddy15:04
xG 0.75–0.11 (88%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson14:32
xG 0.27–0.62 (30%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Keith – Seabrook13:49
xG 0.39–1.08 (26%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).