Sat, Feb 23, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Winnipeg Jets 3, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 112 | 214 | 011 | 337 |
| PHI | 117 | 114 | 38 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:48WPGEvander KaneAssists: Nik Antropov, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 15:18PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Daniel Brière, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–1
- P2 2:34WPGOlli JokinenAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 11:13WPGAlexander BurmistrovAssists: Grant Clitsome, Dustin Byfuglien · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 14:24PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 6:18PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 8:57PHIWayne SimmondsPPGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 19:59PHIZac RinaldoENAssists: Kimmo Timonen · Backhand, 0.78 xG3–5
Penalties (18)
- P1 5:49PHIKimmo Timonen: Interference2 min
- P1 9:07WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:07PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:57PHILuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:57WPGEvander Kane: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:13WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:13PHIScott Hartnell: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 6:54WPGBryan Little: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:29PHIDaniel Brière: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:03WPGKyle Wellwood: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:22WPGDustin Byfuglien: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:24WPGJim Slater: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 3:43PHIRuslan Fedotenko: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:00WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:49WPGEvander Kane: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:49WPGEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:49PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:11PHIBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Kane – Burmistrov6:51
xG 0.70–0.01 (99%)attempts 14–1goals 2–0
- Antropov – Slater – Burmistrov2:00
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Wright4:31
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little10:55
xG 0.51–0.79 (39%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Clitsome13:06
xG 1.07–0.62 (63%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Byfuglien – Bogosian2:31
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian14:00
xG 0.35–0.64 (35%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Simmonds – Schenn5:21
xG 0.86–0.67 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Couturier11:26
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek12:04
xG 0.65–0.57 (54%)attempts 21–13goals 0–1
- Knuble – Fedotenko – McGinn6:01
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGervais – Gustafsson10:20
xG 1.06–0.27 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Schenn – Gustafsson3:21
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Timonen – Schenn8:59
xG 0.51–0.66 (44%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).