Sat, Feb 23, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Phoenix Coyotes 2, Edmonton Oilers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 19 | 111 | 014 | 02 | 0 | 236 |
| EDM | 012 | 116 | 111 | 04 | 2 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:23PHXKyle ChipchuraAssists: Nick Johnson, Paul Bissonnette · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 9:42PHXMatthew LombardiPPAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 16:22EDMJordan EberleAssists: Nail Yakupov, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 8:04EDMTeemu HartikainenPPAssists: Ryan Smyth, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. EDM Sam Gagner scored
- 2. PHX Mikkel Boedker stopped
- 3. EDM Jordan Eberle scored
- 4. PHX David Rundblad stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:25EDMChris VandeVelde: Holding2 min
- P1 12:26PHXDavid Moss: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:56EDMBen Eager: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:53EDMJeff Petry: Interference2 min
- P2 6:15EDMNick Schultz: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 10:54PHXRostislav Klesla: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:55EDMBen Eager: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:21EDMEric Belanger: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:57PHXKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 0:55PHXLauri Korpikoski: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBissonnette – Chipchura – Johnson3:06
xG 0.54–0.13 (81%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Torres – Moss – Gordon9:35
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker10:08
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Lombardi – Korpikoski8:50
xG 0.22–0.45 (32%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson15:16
xG 1.04–0.42 (71%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Klesla – Yandle12:59
xG 0.89–0.41 (69%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Michalek – Yandle2:12
xG 0.09–0.02 (84%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBelanger – Eager – Jones6:33
xG 0.36–0.08 (81%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Paajarvi – Yakupov3:00
xG 0.22–0.07 (76%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Smyth – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins6:33
xG 0.50–0.37 (57%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Paajarvi4:06
xG 0.05–0.07 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPotter – Fistric11:35
xG 0.62–0.40 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Fistric – Petry2:26
xG 0.25–0.03 (88%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Smid – Petry10:21
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).