Sat, Feb 23, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Colorado Avalanche 1, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 09 | 110 | 05 | 124 |
| LAK | 26 | 29 | 011 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58LAKDustin BrownAssists: Justin Williams, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 14:22LAKJeff CarterGWGAssists: Mike Richards, Slava Voynov · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 1:16COLMilan HejdukPPAssists: PA Parenteau, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 2:51LAKTrevor LewisSHAssists: Jarret Stoll · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 16:42LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dustin Penner, Dwight King · Snap, 0.11 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:40LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min
- P1 19:36LAKDavis Drewiske: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:47COLMatt Duchene: Interference2 min
- P2 0:52LAKJake Muzzin: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:54LAKKeaton Ellerby: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:15COLJamie McGinn: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:15LAKColin Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:11COLRyan O'Byrne: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:24LAKKeaton Ellerby: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:24COLChuck Kobasew: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Mitchell – McLeod8:30
xG 0.35–0.18 (67%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – Landeskog12:28
xG 0.16–0.35 (31%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Bordeleau – Olver9:12
xG 0.02–0.49 (4%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Parenteau – McGinn – Duchene8:28
xG 0.16–0.72 (18%)attempts 4–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Zanon – Elliott13:10
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Hejda – Barrie17:04
xG 0.63–0.74 (46%)attempts 15–14goals 0–2
- O'Byrne – Hunwick15:41
xG 0.08–0.91 (8%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar16:03
xG 1.28–0.30 (81%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Carter – Richards – Lewis11:34
xG 0.45–0.17 (72%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan7:42
xG 0.01–0.04 (25%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Stoll – Penner – King10:11
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty13:54
xG 0.79–0.18 (82%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Ellerby – Drewiske7:56
xG 0.58–0.15 (79%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Ellerby – Doughty5:12
xG 0.28–0.04 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).