Sat, Feb 23, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
New York Islanders 4, Buffalo Sabres 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 013 | 211 | 28 | 432 |
| BUF | 09 | 013 | 013 | 035 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:51NYIMark StreitGWGAssists: Matt Moulson, Marty Reasoner · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 18:56NYIMichael GrabnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
- P3 4:24NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Matt Moulson, Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P3 19:02NYIColin McDonaldPPAssists: Casey Cizikas, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–0
Penalties (17)
- P1 5:27NYIMark Streit: Interference2 min
- P1 10:50NYIColin McDonald: Interference2 min
- P2 12:16NYIKeith Aucoin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:26NYIJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:18BUFThomas Vanek: Interference2 min
- P3 8:50NYIJoe Finley: Interference2 min
- P3 9:03BUFNathan Gerbe: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:35NYITravis Hamonic: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:41BUFCody Hodgson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:50BUFMarcus Foligno: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:50BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:50NYIJoe Finley: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:56BUFMike Weber: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:56NYIMatt Martin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:56NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:56NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:56BUFRyan Miller: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Moulson – Tavares11:33
xG 1.15–0.16 (88%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Aucoin – Nielsen – Bailey10:14
xG 0.61–0.29 (68%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Okposo – Grabner8:41
xG 1.07–0.80 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas9:03
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic13:03
xG 1.41–0.47 (75%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Streit – Visnovsky3:10
xG 0.78–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey14:07
xG 0.74–0.41 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Kaleta – Foligno2:21
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kaleta – Foligno – Grigorenko2:56
xG 0.03–0.02 (55%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Stafford – Gerbe – Ennis8:59
xG 0.15–0.24 (39%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Hodgson12:30
xG 0.92–1.37 (40%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Myers2:53
xG 0.16–0.03 (86%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sekera – Weber2:58
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Regehr – Myers8:48
xG 0.41–0.37 (52%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).