Sun, Feb 24, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Boston Bruins 4, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 211 | 113 | 18 | 432 |
| FLA | 111 | 07 | 017 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:57BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Krejci · Snap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 13:52BOSZdeno CharaGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, Tyler Seguin · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 15:38FLATomas KopeckyAssists: Drew Shore, Tomas Fleischmann · Slap, 0.29 xG2–1
- P2 2:30BOSChris KellyPPAssists: Daniel Paille, Chris Bourque · Slap, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 18:23BOSDaniel PailleENAssists: Adam McQuaid · Slap, 0.75 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:04BOSChris Kelly: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:39FLABrian Campbell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:42BOSMilan Lucic: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:42BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:53BOSMilan Lucic: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:36BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin12:51
xG 0.74–0.21 (77%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic8:36
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Kelly – Bourque – Peverley9:15
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille7:15
xG 0.30–0.58 (34%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Boychuk5:51
xG 0.43–0.11 (79%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – McQuaid2:36
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Chara – Boychuk10:55
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestKopecky – Fleischmann – Shore6:38
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Mueller – Shore – Huberdeau5:18
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Parros – Smithson – Santorelli4:08
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Goc – Skille – Matthias3:45
xG 0.06–0.04 (61%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Robak11:31
xG 0.73–0.48 (60%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Campbell – Kulikov2:12
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Weaver – Strachan2:47
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).