Sun, Feb 24, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 014 | 24 | 210 | 428 |
| NYI | 25 | 014 | 06 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:38NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Brad Boyes, John Tavares · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 12:25NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 18:28CAREric StaalPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Jiri Tlusty · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 19:13CARJordan StaalAssists: Alexander Semin, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 10:17CARBobby SanguinettiGWGAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 19:30CARAlexander SeminENUnassisted · Snap, 0.77 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:47NYITravis Hamonic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:32CARJoe Corvo: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:22NYILubomir Visnovsky: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:06CARJussi Jokinen: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P2 9:40CARKevin Westgarth: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:24NYIMatt Martin: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLaRose – Semin – Staal6:43
xG 0.45–0.11 (80%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Dwyer – Staal11:11
xG 0.64–0.49 (56%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Tlusty – Nash – Bowman2:25
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Nodl – Wallace – Westgarth4:43
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Sanguinetti14:58
xG 0.93–0.17 (85%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Corvo – Faulk17:09
xG 0.36–0.59 (38%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Jordan – Murphy10:18
xG 0.21–0.53 (28%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestAucoin – Nielsen – Bailey10:58
xG 0.71–0.20 (78%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Okposo – Grabner11:15
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas7:38
xG 0.08–0.22 (26%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares14:58
xG 0.72–1.02 (41%)attempts 15–22goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic15:08
xG 0.69–0.23 (75%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Martinek – Streit14:08
xG 0.59–0.47 (56%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Streit – Hamonic2:07
xG 0.08–0.10 (45%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).