Sun, Feb 24, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 210 | 110 | 330 |
| PIT | 310 | 17 | 15 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:16PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 7:15PITSidney CrosbyAssists: James Neal, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–2
- P1 19:26PITPaul MartinAssists: Matt Cooke · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–3
- P2 1:37TBLEric BrewerAssists: Steven Stamkos, Alex Killorn · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 3:14TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 12:20PITBeau BennettPPGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 3:15TBLCory ConacherAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–4
- P3 19:08PITMatt CookeENAssists: Brandon Sutter, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:31PITJoe Vitale: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 19:31TBLAdam Hall: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:29PITSimon Despres: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:54PITCraig Adams: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:03TBLEric Brewer: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:45TBLSami Salo: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jeffrey won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Pouliot9:19
xG 0.56–0.06 (91%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Thompson – Pyatt – Killorn9:42
xG 0.44–0.12 (79%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Hall – Crombeen – Panik6:41
xG 0.00–0.44 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Purcell – Stamkos – Conacher7:17
xG 0.16–0.60 (21%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAulie – Hedman2:20
xG 0.16–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Aulie6:57
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Hedman2:39
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Dupuis – Sutter8:48
xG 0.55–0.22 (72%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Neal13:44
xG 0.87–0.59 (60%)attempts 12–10goals 2–1
- Kennedy – Jeffrey – Bennett5:49
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Sutter – Bennett2:52
xG 0.04–0.06 (39%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Despres11:08
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Letang17:04
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Letang – Despres2:01
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).