Sun, Feb 24, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Phoenix Coyotes 4, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 06 | 28 | 214 | 428 |
| CGY | 17 | 215 | 29 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:15CGYTim JackmanAssists: Roman Cervenka, Chris Butler · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 5:32PHXMichael StonePPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 14:01PHXRaffi TorresAssists: Matthew Lombardi, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 16:26CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Alex Tanguay · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 19:25CGYMichael CammalleriAssists: Curtis Glencross, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 2:22PHXRaffi TorresAssists: Zbynek Michalek, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 8:48PHXNick JohnsonAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Paul Bissonnette · Backhand, 0.34 xG4–3
- P3 18:37CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Alex Tanguay, Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
- P3 19:00CGYCurtis GlencrossGWGAssists: Lee Stempniak, Chris Butler · Slap, 0.05 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:49PHXAntoine Vermette: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 11:01CGYLee Stempniak: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:05CGYSteve Begin: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:22CGYMatt Stajan: Holding2 min
- P2 5:26CGYMatt Stajan: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:43PHXChris Summers: Holding2 min
- P2 11:58CGYMichael Cammalleri: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 0:00PHXAntoine Vermette: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00CGYJarome Iginla: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hudler won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestLombardi – Moss – Boedker3:03
xG 0.70–0.13 (85%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Sullivan – Vermette – Korpikoski6:03
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Torres – Moss – Gordon3:45
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Doan – Torres – Chipchura3:54
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 2–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson16:27
xG 1.26–0.83 (60%)attempts 14–14goals 2–1
- Yandle – Stone9:35
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Klesla – Yandle5:55
xG 0.06–0.18 (24%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stempniak – Glencross11:43
xG 0.69–0.10 (88%)attempts 17–6goals 2–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan13:44
xG 0.89–0.53 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
- Hudler – Comeau – Baertschi8:36
xG 0.35–0.46 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Brodie3:08
xG 0.36–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Giordano12:37
xG 0.85–0.61 (58%)attempts 14–9goals 2–1
- Butler – Smith11:05
xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).