Sun, Feb 24, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
Colorado Avalanche 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 211 | 110 | 01 | 01 | 323 |
| ANA | 06 | 222 | 17 | 14 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:28COLCody McLeodAssists: Matt Hunwick, Ryan O'Byrne · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 12:54COLPA ParenteauPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–0
- P2 6:59ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Francois Beauchemin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 9:24ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Saku Koivu, Francois Beauchemin · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 10:04COLJohn MitchellSHAssists: Milan Hejduk, Ryan O'Byrne · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 8:49ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Corey Perry, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 4:14ANACorey PerryPPGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Francois Beauchemin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:42ANANick Bonino: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 13:27ANALuca Sbisa: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:00ANAKyle Palmieri: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:35COLPA Parenteau: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:42COLGreg Zanon: Holding2 min
- P2 7:30COLJan Hejda: Charging2 min · PPG
- P3 6:37ANACorey Perry: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:41COLGabriel Landeskog: Slashing2 min · PPG
- OT 3:59COLRyan O'Byrne: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 4:14COLPA Parenteau: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – McGinn – Duchene10:51
xG 0.42–0.35 (54%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Kobasew – Bordeleau – McLeod3:32
xG 0.03–0.11 (20%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Mitchell – Palushaj8:21
xG 0.10–0.41 (19%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Jones – Stastny – Landeskog11:42
xG 0.28–0.80 (26%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Elliott10:58
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- O'Byrne – Hunwick16:16
xG 0.62–0.73 (46%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Hejda – Barrie14:29
xG 0.56–0.77 (42%)attempts 18–21goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Beleskey8:49
xG 0.65–0.12 (85%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Cogliano2:39
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Selanne – Ryan – Bonino5:06
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Bonino – Maroon – Palmieri4:54
xG 0.18–0.19 (47%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSouray – Beauchemin14:06
xG 0.56–0.15 (79%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Sbisa14:42
xG 0.28–0.55 (33%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Allen – Fowler12:24
xG 0.46–0.79 (37%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).