Mon, Feb 25, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 110 | 14 | 28 | 422 |
| PHI | 010 | 15 | 110 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:20TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak, Carl Gunnarsson · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 15:02TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Nazem Kadri, Carl Gunnarsson · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 17:56PHIScott HartnellAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 7:52TORMikhail GrabovskiGWGAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Nazem Kadri · Backhand, 0.27 xG3–1
- P3 11:42PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 19:47TORJay McClementENAssists: Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:27TORDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
- P1 7:32PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:01TORMike Brown: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:59TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:59PHITye McGinn: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:08TORDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
- P2 10:13TORMark Fraser: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:43PHIKimmo Timonen: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:46PHIMax Talbot: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:18TORJames van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:18TORJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Grabovski – Kulemin9:42
xG 0.35–0.20 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Steckel – Brown – McLaren2:50
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:36
xG 0.45–0.51 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- MacArthur – Komarov – Kadri9:58
xG 0.33–0.47 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Kostka14:08
xG 1.04–0.39 (73%)attempts 17–8goals 3–0
- Phaneuf – Holzer13:20
xG 0.60–0.59 (50%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Franson – Fraser10:39
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Simmonds – Schenn10:59
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Couturier7:34
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Knuble – Fedotenko – McGinn3:57
xG 0.10–0.13 (44%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek11:59
xG 0.14–0.36 (28%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Schenn11:27
xG 0.45–0.23 (67%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Gervais – Gustafsson12:29
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann14:08
xG 0.29–0.85 (25%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).