Mon, Feb 25, 2013·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 1, Ottawa Senators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 012 | 118 | 010 | 05 | 1 | 145 |
| OTT | 05 | 110 | 08 | 01 | 2 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:49OTTDave DziurzynskiAssists: Chris Neil, Chris Phillips · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 19:56MTLAndrei MarkovPPAssists: Raphael Diaz, Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. OTT Jakob Silfverberg scored
- 2. MTL Alex Galchenyuk stopped
- 3. OTT Daniel Alfredsson stopped
- 4. MTL David Desharnais scored
- 5. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 6. MTL Brendan Gallagher stopped
- 7. OTT Kaspars Daugavins stopped
- 8. MTL Brian Gionta stopped
- 9. OTT Peter Regin scored
- 10. MTL Tomas Plekanec stopped
Penalties (5)
- P2 4:24OTTMika Zibanejad: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:32OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:21OTTMarc Methot: Interference2 min
- P3 19:18MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:53OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Plekanec – Prust12:49
xG 1.09–0.16 (87%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:18
xG 0.64–0.09 (88%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Cole – Eller – Galchenyuk10:45
xG 0.39–0.11 (78%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Moen – Armstrong – White10:35
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Diaz16:37
xG 0.75–0.15 (83%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Bouillon – Subban13:52
xG 0.73–0.20 (79%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Markov – Emelin19:49
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Regin – Daugavins – Condra3:13
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Greening – O'Brien – Zibanejad2:53
xG 0.02–0.05 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Greening – Condra – Zibanejad8:44
xG 0.07–0.25 (22%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Turris – Silfverberg11:57
xG 0.19–0.40 (32%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gonchar – Wiercioch16:31
xG 0.29–0.64 (31%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Methot – Gryba19:59
xG 0.31–0.83 (27%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Phillips – Benoit14:58
xG 0.12–0.77 (14%)attempts 8–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).