Mon, Feb 25, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Anaheim Ducks 2, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 07 | 214 | 05 | 226 |
| LAK | 09 | 211 | 35 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:13ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 3:16LAKDustin PennerAssists: Jarret Stoll, Dwight King · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 5:51ANASaku KoivuPPAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 17:53LAKDustin BrownAssists: Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 4:46LAKSlava VoynovGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 6:23LAKJake MuzzinPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Slava Voynov · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 19:39LAKJeff CarterENAssists: Mike Richards, Drew Doughty · Backhand, 0.76 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P2 3:04ANASheldon Souray: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:04LAKJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 4:02LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:08LAKSlava Voynov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:22LAKDwight King: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:08ANASheldon Souray: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:58ANACorey Perry: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Cogliano9:36
xG 0.45–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Ryan – Bonino – Palmieri7:41
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Beleskey2:06
xG 0.01–0.02 (40%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Staubitz – Beleskey – Maroon5:07
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Lovejoy11:57
xG 0.26–0.07 (80%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Lydman – Fowler2:18
xG 0.05–0.18 (22%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Allen – Fowler15:34
xG 0.24–0.54 (31%)attempts 7–18goals 1–2
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar14:26
xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 24–5goals 2–0
- Stoll – Penner – King11:09
xG 0.38–0.15 (71%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Carter – Richards – Lewis11:26
xG 0.52–0.43 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan5:31
xG 0.02–0.12 (17%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Voynov18:28
xG 0.81–0.27 (75%)attempts 16–11goals 3–1
- Muzzin – Doughty18:41
xG 0.89–0.69 (56%)attempts 23–15goals 0–0
- Ellerby – Drewiske9:36
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).