Tue, Feb 26, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Winnipeg Jets 4, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 09 | 317 | 16 | 432 |
| NYR | 07 | 112 | 214 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:55WPGOlli JokinenAssists: Evander Kane, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–0
- P2 7:02WPGEvander KaneAssists: Anthony Peluso, Nik Antropov · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 9:28NYRRyan CallahanAssists: Steve Eminger, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 14:48WPGOlli JokinenAssists: Anthony Peluso, Grant Clitsome · Snap, 0.32 xG3–1
- P3 9:17NYRTaylor PyattAssists: Anton Stralman, Marc Staal · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 9:37WPGEvander KaneGWGAssists: Alexander Burmistrov, Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 10:30NYRAnton StralmanAssists: Marian Gaborik, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:11WPGDustin Byfuglien: Holding2 min
- P1 14:39NYRChris Kreider: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:42NYRBrian Boyle: Kneeing2 min
- P3 4:44NYRJ.T. Miller: Holding2 min
- P3 13:51WPGJim Slater: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Antropov won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Wright – Kane2:02
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Peluso – Wright5:16
xG 0.51–0.15 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
- Antropov – Kane – Burmistrov10:29
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Tangradi3:33
xG 0.03–0.09 (27%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Byfuglien2:54
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Clitsome15:31
xG 0.78–0.74 (52%)attempts 9–17goals 2–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian15:59
xG 0.60–0.68 (47%)attempts 12–19goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Callahan – Stepan16:15
xG 0.65–0.31 (68%)attempts 20–10goals 2–0
- Boyle – Powe – Miller6:16
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Richards – Gaborik – Hagelin12:35
xG 0.56–0.54 (51%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Halpern – Mashinter – Kreider2:19
xG 0.07–0.45 (14%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Gilroy3:09
xG 0.32–0.03 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Eminger – Girardi16:32
xG 0.53–0.32 (62%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Eminger – Stralman2:02
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).