Tue, Feb 26, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Boston Bruins 4, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 110 | 212 | 112 | 434 |
| NYI | 111 | 012 | 014 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:43BOSAdam McQuaidAssists: Tyler Seguin, Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 15:49NYICasey CizikasAssists: Josh Bailey, Andrew MacDonald · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 0:38BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Andrew Ference, Patrice Bergeron · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 5:16BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Milan Lucic, Nathan Horton · Snap, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 18:55BOSGregory CampbellENAssists: Tyler Seguin, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.60 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:18BOSGregory Campbell: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:18NYIRadek Martinek: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:18NYIMark Streit: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:07NYILubomir Visnovsky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:40NYITravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:09BOSPatrice Bergeron: Interference2 min
- P2 18:25BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin9:46
xG 1.07–0.56 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
- Kelly – Bourque – Peverley6:36
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic11:04
xG 0.35–0.25 (58%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille5:47
xG 0.02–0.37 (6%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Hamilton2:51
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Hamilton8:28
xG 0.70–0.56 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Boychuk5:40
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Bailey9:49
xG 0.57–0.24 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Grabner – Ullstrom6:43
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas8:42
xG 0.31–0.50 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares12:45
xG 0.55–0.90 (38%)attempts 13–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMartinek – Streit12:19
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey10:32
xG 0.71–0.85 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic15:40
xG 0.68–1.01 (40%)attempts 20–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).