Tue, Feb 26, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Florida Panthers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 411 | 015 | 434 |
| FLA | 112 | 315 | 29 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:57FLATomas KopeckyPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Dmitry Kulikov · Backhand, 0.31 xG0–1
- P2 0:51PITJames NealAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 3:22FLATomas KopeckyPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–2
- P2 8:23FLABrian CampbellPPAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Drew Shore · Slap, 0.00 xG1–3
- P2 8:54FLAMarcel GocPPAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Tomas Fleischmann · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–4
- P2 9:51PITDustin JeffreyAssists: Brooks Orpik, Beau Bennett · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P2 14:08PITPaul MartinAssists: James Neal · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P2 19:19PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–4
- P3 3:29FLATomas FleischmannGWGAssists: Jerred Smithson · Snap, 0.06 xG4–5
- P3 19:00FLATomas KopeckyENAssists: Marcel Goc, Erik Gudbranson · Slap, 0.50 xG4–6
Penalties (16)
- P1 1:58FLAShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:54PITTyler Kennedy: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:19PITMatt Cooke: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:31PITBrooks Orpik: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:22FLATomas Kopecky: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:22FLATomas Kopecky: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:22PITTomas Vokoun: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:22PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:22FLABrian Campbell: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:14PITTanner Glass: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:23PITPascal Dupuis: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:58PITChris Kunitz: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:27PITJames Neal: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:08FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:19FLATomas Fleischmann: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:52FLAScott Timmins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Shore won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Neal11:50
xG 0.71–0.45 (61%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
- Dupuis – Sutter – Bennett5:04
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale3:49
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Jeffrey3:56
xG 0.41–0.61 (40%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Letang6:11
xG 0.76–0.45 (63%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Orpik – Bortuzzo2:16
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Engelland – Letang4:45
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMueller – Shore – Huberdeau12:30
xG 1.62–0.42 (79%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Skille – Matthias – Timmins2:02
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Parros – Smithson – Skille2:21
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Smithson – Goc – Fleischmann2:37
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Robak9:03
xG 0.83–0.39 (68%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Gudbranson9:58
xG 0.75–0.61 (55%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Campbell – Gudbranson2:08
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).