Tue, Feb 26, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Calgary Flames 1, Minnesota Wild 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 112 | 05 | 04 | 00 | 121 |
| MIN | 09 | 011 | 19 | 11 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:18CGYAlex TanguayPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Jay Bouwmeester · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 15:41MINJason ZuckerAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- OT 0:27MINZach ParisePPGWGAssists: Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:06CGYTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:11MINJason Zucker: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:23CGYRoman Cervenka: Interference2 min
- P1 13:23MINDevin Setoguchi: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:48MINJared Spurgeon: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:12CGYMatt Stajan: Interference2 min
- P2 1:31MINZach Parise: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:15CGYDennis Wideman: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:51CGYMichael Cammalleri: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:42MINTorrey Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:24CGYCurtis Glencross: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:52MINCharlie Coyle: Elbowing5 min
- P3 3:58CGYChris Butler: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:26MINJonas Brodin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 19:17CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game smothering puck2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Begin – Jackman – Comeau2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Stempniak – Glencross5:57
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan7:18
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Hudler – Baertschi – Cervenka7:58
xG 0.12–0.44 (21%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Butler – Smith8:36
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Giordano10:24
xG 0.05–0.34 (12%)attempts 2–12goals 0–1
- Wideman – Brodie9:58
xG 0.07–0.42 (15%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Coyle8:23
xG 0.33–0.08 (82%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Heatley – Bouchard – Brodziak7:22
xG 0.25–0.07 (77%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Cullen – Setoguchi – Zucker4:33
xG 0.18–0.13 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Rupp – Mitchell – Granlund2:27
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Falk5:24
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin12:52
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Stoner – Spurgeon9:45
xG 0.31–0.16 (67%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).