Tue, Feb 26, 2013·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 06 | 110 | 00 | 1 | 227 |
| SJS | 116 | 114 | 08 | 03 | 2 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:25SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Joe Thornton, Martin Havlat · Slap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 12:13COLChuck KobasewAssists: Jan Hejda, Patrick Bordeleau · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 2:55SJSTJ GaliardiAssists: James Sheppard, Adam Burish · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 16:44COLMark OlverAssists: Cody McLeod, Jan Hejda · Backhand, 0.52 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. SJS Michal Handzus scored
- 2. COL Milan Hejduk stopped
- 3. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 4. COL Gabriel Landeskog stopped
- 5. SJS Dan Boyle stopped
- 6. COL PA Parenteau scored
- 7. SJS Patrick Marleau scored
- 8. COL John Mitchell stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:14COLMark Olver: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 14:06COLPA Parenteau: Charging2 min
- P1 15:54SJSJoe Thornton: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:34COLRyan O'Byrne: Holding2 min
- P3 6:44COLPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:21SJSMartin Havlat: Holding2 min
- P3 18:58COLJamie McGinn: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKobasew – Bordeleau – Palushaj3:00
xG 0.19–0.02 (92%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Jones – Landeskog8:04
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Stastny – McGinn11:26
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Hejduk – McLeod – Olver3:49
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Byrne – Hunwick11:08
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- O'Brien – Barrie3:30
xG 0.06–0.04 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hejda – Barrie12:25
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBurish – Sheppard – Galiardi5:42
xG 0.50–0.25 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Marleau – Gomez – Pavelski8:55
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Handzus – Kennedy – Desjardins6:51
xG 0.06–0.00 (97%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – Havlat – Couture9:36
xG 0.33–0.30 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Demers14:00
xG 0.36–0.48 (43%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Boyle – Vlasic15:54
xG 0.88–1.07 (45%)attempts 18–14goals 2–1
- Murray – Braun10:57
xG 0.22–0.46 (32%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).