Wed, Feb 27, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 03 | 112 | 124 |
| PHI | 210 | 212 | 010 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:23PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 4:04PHIWayne SimmondsPPGWGAssists: Scott Hartnell, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 3:54PHISimon GagnePPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–3
- P2 14:55PHIMax TalbotAssists: Luke Schenn, Bruno Gervais · Slap, 0.08 xG0–4
- P3 17:51WSHJoel WardAssists: Tom Poti, Jay Beagle · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:57WSHMike Ribeiro: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 5:13PHIHarry Zolnierczyk: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:55WSHJoel Ward: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:25PHIBraydon Coburn: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:15WSHMike Ribeiro: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 4:15WSHMike Ribeiro: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:35PHIHarry Zolnierczyk: Kneeing5 min
- P3 19:35PHIHarry Zolnierczyk: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 19:35PHIZac Rinaldo: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:35WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWard – Wolski – Beagle3:54
xG 0.68–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Ovechkin – Perreault2:55
xG 0.29–0.06 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ward – Wolski – Perreault6:10
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Chimera – Crabb – Beagle2:14
xG 0.05–0.02 (70%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPoti – Kundratek14:13
xG 0.87–0.69 (56%)attempts 12–21goals 1–0
- Green – Alzner17:54
xG 0.29–0.68 (30%)attempts 9–18goals 0–2
- Erskine – Carlson15:06
xG 0.45–1.51 (23%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Giroux – Voracek11:24
xG 1.01–0.40 (72%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Gagne – Talbot – Couturier11:24
xG 0.78–0.41 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Rinaldo – Zolnierczyk7:07
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Brière – Simmonds – Schenn11:02
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Schenn10:28
xG 0.89–0.08 (91%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Gervais – Schenn4:33
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Gervais – Grossmann2:41
xG 0.28–0.05 (86%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).