Wed, Feb 27, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
Nashville Predators 1, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 18 | 04 | 121 |
| ANA | 313 | 28 | 07 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:48ANANick BoninoAssists: Emerson Etem · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 3:49ANAKyle PalmieriGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 16:57ANAKyle PalmieriAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 1:07ANAKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 9:27NSHCraig SmithAssists: Kevin Klein, Rich Clune · Slap, 0.19 xG1–4
- P2 19:20ANASaku KoivuPPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Francois Beauchemin · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 19:24NSHColin Wilson: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 10:53ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:18NSHScott Hannan: Interference2 min
- P2 17:58NSHRich Clune: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 1:49ANABryan Allen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:49NSHRich Clune: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:25ANAMatt Beleskey: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:51ANAMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:51NSHScott Hannan: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Clune – Kostitsyn – Smith9:25
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Bourque11:27
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Fisher – Erat – Wilson9:11
xG 0.12–0.28 (29%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Gaustad – Yip – Spaling10:27
xG 0.04–0.25 (13%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Klein6:05
xG 0.16–0.01 (94%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Klein – Blum10:28
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Blum – Ellis3:06
xG 0.03–0.17 (14%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Palmieri8:27
xG 0.55–0.15 (78%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Bonino – Maroon – Etem11:00
xG 0.37–0.00 (99%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Selanne – Ryan – Beleskey10:11
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano11:11
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Allen13:46
xG 0.77–0.07 (91%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Souray – Beauchemin13:54
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Sbisa – Fowler18:04
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).