Wed, Feb 27, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Detroit Red Wings 1, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 113 | 07 | 013 | 133 |
| LAK | 05 | 013 | 211 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:42DETKyle QuinceyUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 10:26LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Mike Richards, Anze Kopitar · Tip-in, 0.24 xG1–1
- P3 15:12LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Dwight King, Trevor Lewis · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:21LAKDustin Penner: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:56LAKRob Scuderi: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:35DETJustin Abdelkader: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:58DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:20DETPavel Datsyuk: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:27LAKSlava Voynov: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:18DETKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:40DETPavel Datsyuk: Delaying game face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Andersson – Tatar7:36
xG 0.39–0.05 (88%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Cleary – Datsyuk – Abdelkader12:04
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Miller – Emmerton10:21
xG 0.35–0.75 (32%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Zetterberg – Franzen – Brunner11:34
xG 0.13–0.73 (16%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Smith10:56
xG 0.77–0.15 (84%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Lashoff3:13
xG 0.27–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Quincey – Kindl2:37
xG 0.03–0.11 (24%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Penner – King6:16
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Carter – Richards – Penner2:07
xG 0.17–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – Lewis5:45
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar11:58
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllerby – Drewiske10:00
xG 0.81–0.25 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty14:43
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Voynov16:15
xG 0.68–1.12 (38%)attempts 8–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).