Thu, Feb 28, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
New Jersey Devils 1, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 05 | 18 | 010 | 123 |
| WPG | 18 | 05 | 28 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:08WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Bryan Little, Zach Bogosian · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 3:05NJDAndrei LoktionovAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Henrik Tallinder · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 11:59WPGAndrew LaddGWGAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Grant Clitsome · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 19:24WPGBlake WheelerENAssists: Andrew Ladd, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.77 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:37WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Interference2 min
- P1 19:56WPGEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:15NJDMarek Zidlicky: Interference2 min
- P2 14:26NJDBryce Salvador: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:30NJDStephen Gionta: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:38WPGEric Tangradi: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:39WPGNik Antropov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:39NJDSteve Bernier: Diving2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Henrique – Loktionov10:55
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Elias – Clarkson – Zajac10:05
xG 0.51–0.50 (51%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Ponikarovsky – Bernier – Gionta7:37
xG 0.08–0.11 (43%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Sestito – Butler – Matteau3:31
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Fayne6:08
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Salvador – Fayne10:43
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Zidlicky9:38
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Peluso – Wright6:13
xG 0.42–0.02 (95%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Antropov – Kane – Burmistrov11:32
xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little12:34
xG 0.41–0.65 (39%)attempts 5–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Postma7:39
xG 0.37–0.05 (88%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Clitsome13:31
xG 0.43–0.22 (67%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian17:29
xG 0.74–0.78 (49%)attempts 11–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).