Thu, Feb 28, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Edmonton Oilers 5, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 210 | 111 | 217 | 538 |
| DAL | 015 | 08 | 111 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13EDMSam GagnerAssists: Jeff Petry, Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 13:52EDMJustin SchultzGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 19:46EDMJeff PetryAssists: Ales Hemsky, Lennart Petrell · Backhand, 0.01 xG3–0
- P3 0:50EDMAles HemskyPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–0
- P3 11:37EDMBen EagerAssists: Lennart Petrell · Snap, 0.04 xG5–0
- P3 14:05DALJaromir JagrAssists: Alex Goligoski, Antoine Roussel · Slap, 0.07 xG5–1
Penalties (20)
- P1 1:59DALVernon Fiddler: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:02EDMJustin Schultz: Holding2 min
- P1 18:50DALEric Nystrom: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:46DALBrenden Dillon: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:18EDMJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:26EDMMark Fistric: Interference2 min
- P2 13:38EDMBen Eager: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:11DALJamie Benn: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 16:13DALReilly Smith: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:04DALBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 19:04EDMSam Gagner: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:12DALStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:42EDMMark Fistric: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:42DALAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:42DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:09EDMJeff Petry: Interference2 min
- P3 16:00DALJamie Benn: Cross checking5 min
- P3 16:00DALJamie Benn: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 16:00EDMRyan Jones: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 17:55DALBrenden Dillon: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins8:29
xG 0.53–0.37 (59%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Eager – Petrell – VandeVelde4:56
xG 0.05–0.14 (25%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Jones – Gagner6:17
xG 0.42–0.77 (35%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Smyth – Belanger – Yakupov4:32
xG 0.05–0.66 (8%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Fistric2:53
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Schultz – Schultz7:17
xG 0.39–0.61 (39%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Fistric – Petry4:35
xG 0.02–0.27 (7%)attempts 2–10goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Smith – Eakin4:00
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Jagr – Morrow – Benn5:52
xG 0.29–0.03 (90%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Roy – Eriksson – Roussel3:32
xG 0.22–0.08 (75%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Nystrom – Garbutt4:46
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Benn7:40
xG 0.68–0.14 (83%)attempts 12–8goals 0–3
- Robidas – Dillon8:46
xG 0.80–0.27 (75%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Oleksiak8:55
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).