Fri, Mar 1, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 17 | 15 | 18 | 02 | 322 |
| CHI | 17 | 28 | 017 | 13 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:31CBJVinny ProspalAssists: Derek Dorsett, Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–0
- P1 16:09CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Brandon Saad, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–1
- P2 12:42CBJArtem AnisimovAssists: Cam Atkinson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 17:20CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Duncan Keith · Backhand, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 18:19CHIBryan BickellUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 12:23CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Nick Foligno, R.J. Umberger · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 3:23CHIBrent SeabrookGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Viktor Stalberg · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:48CHIViktor Stalberg: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:10CBJNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:10CHISheldon Brookbank: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:08CBJRyan Johansen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 1:01CBJNikita Nikitin: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:01CHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:01CBJNikita Nikitin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Letestu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Dorsett – Letestu12:32
xG 0.86–0.43 (66%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Umberger – Atkinson – Johansen2:48
xG 0.44–0.07 (86%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Calvert – Atkinson8:56
xG 0.40–0.33 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen10:03
xG 0.36–0.48 (42%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Tyutin2:08
xG 0.44–0.16 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Prout5:02
xG 0.09–0.09 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Goloubef – Prout2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestMayers – Frolik – Saad4:15
xG 0.37–0.11 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bickell – Stalberg – Shaw10:02
xG 0.72–0.46 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Sharp – Kane – Kruger13:18
xG 0.37–0.14 (73%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Hossa – Carcillo – Toews8:35
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrookbank – Leddy7:37
xG 0.62–0.04 (93%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson17:33
xG 0.44–0.34 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Seabrook – Leddy2:28
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).