Fri, Mar 1, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
Minnesota Wild 2, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 015 | 210 | 233 |
| ANA | 212 | 16 | 011 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry, Kyle Palmieri · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 11:21ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Luca Sbisa, Bobby Ryan · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 11:26ANAMatt BeleskeyGWGAssists: Daniel Winnik, Andrew Cogliano · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 0:29MINKyle BrodziakUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 10:37MINDevin SetoguchiAssists: Mike Rupp, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:00ANABobby Ryan: Holding2 min
- P1 17:28ANAMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:28MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:54ANASaku Koivu: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:17MINZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:17ANAPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:17MINZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:43ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Coyle14:31
xG 0.52–0.34 (60%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Rupp – Konopka – Mitchell7:01
xG 0.16–0.08 (67%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Cullen – Setoguchi – Zucker11:09
xG 0.34–0.65 (35%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
- Heatley – Bouchard – Brodziak10:29
xG 0.19–0.62 (23%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon12:09
xG 0.50–0.15 (77%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Prosser4:05
xG 0.21–0.10 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Prosser – Brodin7:27
xG 0.32–0.36 (48%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Palmieri14:23
xG 0.85–0.45 (66%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano13:00
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Selanne – Ryan – Beleskey8:29
xG 0.60–0.46 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Selanne – Ryan – Bonino2:55
xG 0.07–0.08 (46%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Lovejoy15:42
xG 1.14–0.31 (78%)attempts 19–6goals 2–0
- Sbisa – Fowler16:43
xG 0.76–0.88 (46%)attempts 15–21goals 1–1
- Lydman – Beauchemin15:05
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).