Sat, Mar 2, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Ottawa Senators 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 014 | 19 | 011 | 134 |
| PHI | 010 | 222 | 09 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:24PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 11:23PHIWayne SimmondsGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Daniel Brière · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 14:11OTTMarc MethotAssists: Colin Greening · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 9:13PHIHarry Zolnierczyk: Charging5 min
- P1 9:13PHIHarry Zolnierczyk: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 9:13PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:13OTTKaspars Daugavins: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:25OTTDave Dziurzynski: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:55OTTColin Greening: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:35PHIKimmo Timonen: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:26PHILuke Schenn: Holding2 min
- P3 6:30OTTZack Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 9:36OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:29OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Cross checking5 min
- P3 12:29OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 12:29PHIZac Rinaldo: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:43OTTErik Condra: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:14PHIKimmo Timonen: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Smith – Dziurzynski7:16
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Regin – Daugavins – O'Brien2:57
xG 0.13–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Condra – Silfverberg – Zibanejad2:50
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Neil – Regin – Dziurzynski2:08
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Gryba11:56
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Phillips7:06
xG 0.40–0.36 (53%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Phillips – Gryba2:14
xG 0.09–0.11 (45%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGagne – Talbot – Couturier7:45
xG 0.56–0.32 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek9:39
xG 0.49–0.35 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Brière – Simmonds – Schenn8:36
xG 0.50–0.49 (50%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Fedotenko – Talbot – Rinaldo3:00
xG 0.10–0.29 (26%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Grossmann12:23
xG 0.89–0.48 (65%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Timonen – Schenn8:28
xG 0.42–0.34 (56%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Schenn – Gustafsson2:21
xG 0.01–0.16 (8%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).