Sat, Mar 2, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Washington Capitals 3, Winnipeg Jets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 05 | 113 | 23 | 321 |
| WPG | 015 | 04 | 016 | 035 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:56WSHMatt HendricksGWGAssists: Mike Ribeiro, John Erskine · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 3:24WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 4:16WSHMike RibeiroAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Eric Fehr · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:41WPGBryan Little: Holding2 min
- P1 17:50WPGAnthony Peluso: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:50WSHAaron Volpatti: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:54WSHMathieu Perreault: Interference2 min
- P3 6:51WSHJoel Ward: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:15WSHMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:15WPGZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:15WSHMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:46WPGMark Stuart: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:46WPGMark Stuart: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Brouwer – Backstrom13:59
xG 0.69–0.36 (66%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Hendricks – Ovechkin12:19
xG 0.59–0.33 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Crabb – Beagle – Volpatti4:48
xG 0.06–0.09 (43%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Perreault9:02
xG 0.08–0.45 (14%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Kundratek16:14
xG 0.74–0.27 (73%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Erskine – Carlson14:53
xG 0.64–0.25 (71%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Poti – Schultz12:38
xG 0.69–0.61 (53%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Slater – Tangradi5:21
xG 0.15–0.03 (85%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Antropov – Burmistrov2:25
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little9:19
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Peluso – Wright3:40
xG 0.10–0.22 (32%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Postma9:25
xG 0.27–0.03 (91%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Clitsome13:50
xG 0.42–0.47 (47%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Bogosian13:51
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).