Sat, Mar 2, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Pittsburgh Penguins 7, Montréal Canadiens 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 114 | 312 | 29 | 11 | 736 |
| MTL | 112 | 315 | 212 | 00 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:41MTLBrandon PrustAssists: Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 19:07PITBrandon SutterPPAssists: Kris Letang, Beau Bennett · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 4:14MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Tomas Kaberle · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 7:58PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–2
- P2 8:29PITMatt CookeAssists: Brooks Orpik, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 13:05PITMatt CookeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P2 17:37MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Francis Bouillon, Lars Eller · Tip-in, 0.04 xG4–3
- P2 19:59MTLP.K. SubbanAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–4
- P3 5:25MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Alexei Emelin, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.48 xG4–5
- P3 8:33PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.06 xG5–5
- P3 10:24PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kris Letang, Chris Kunitz · Snap, 0.30 xG6–5
- P3 10:54MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Lars Eller, Alexei Emelin · Slap, 0.02 xG6–6
- OT 0:52PITBrandon SutterGWGAssists: Simon Despres, James Neal · Wrist, 0.05 xG7–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:20MTLTomas Plekanec: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:30PITPascal Dupuis: Holding2 min
- P2 9:01MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:33PITTyler Kennedy: Holding2 min
- P3 2:39PITTanner Glass: Interference2 min
- P3 2:39MTLColby Armstrong: Holding2 min
- P3 12:00PITTyler Kennedy: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby14:29
xG 1.69–0.18 (90%)attempts 20–10goals 3–0
- Cooke – Neal – Sutter9:15
xG 0.65–0.41 (61%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Kennedy – Jeffrey – Bennett6:57
xG 0.24–0.12 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale4:34
xG 0.02–0.21 (7%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Despres9:08
xG 0.72–0.09 (89%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Eaton – Letang3:27
xG 0.51–0.04 (92%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
- Eaton – Niskanen9:41
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher11:20
xG 1.38–1.14 (55%)attempts 19–15goals 3–3
- Gionta – Plekanec – Prust6:17
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- Ryder – Moen – Plekanec3:00
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Gionta – Prust – Eller4:26
xG 0.11–0.12 (49%)attempts 5–2goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Subban9:13
xG 0.82–0.15 (85%)attempts 17–5goals 2–0
- Markov – Subban2:30
xG 0.58–0.15 (79%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Gorges – Subban2:14
xG 0.07–0.10 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).