Sat, Mar 2, 2013·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Los Angeles Kings 2, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 012 | 28 | 010 | 230 |
| VAN | 18 | 39 | 17 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:43VANDan HamhuisAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Henrik Sedin · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 6:12LAKJustin WilliamsPPAssists: Jake Muzzin, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 10:32VANMason RaymondAssists: Jannik Hansen, David Booth · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 13:23LAKJordan NolanAssists: Dustin Penner · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 15:08VANDaniel SedinGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexandre Burrows · Slap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 17:52VANJannik HansenAssists: Mason Raymond, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 19:37VANChris HigginsENUnassisted · Slap, 0.55 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:39VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:52LAKJarret Stoll: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:25VANTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:25LAKJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:31VANKevin Bieksa: Interference2 min
- P1 18:30VANJason Garrison: Interference2 min
- P2 5:33VANAndrew Alberts: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:44VANMaxim Lapierre: Diving2 min
- P2 16:44LAKJarret Stoll: Interference2 min
- P2 19:48LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Richards – Lewis4:22
xG 0.35–0.07 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Carter – Richards – Penner4:01
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan6:19
xG 0.05–0.12 (28%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar11:00
xG 0.36–0.47 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllerby – Drewiske12:10
xG 0.53–0.28 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Scuderi – Voynov10:56
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Muzzin – Doughty16:45
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows10:56
xG 0.65–0.16 (80%)attempts 14–3goals 2–0
- Lapierre – Booth – Kassian9:26
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Sestito – Weise – Schroeder5:36
xG 0.11–0.12 (47%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Higgins – Lapierre – Hansen2:42
xG 0.06–0.19 (22%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Garrison12:20
xG 0.59–0.02 (97%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Alberts – Tanev10:59
xG 0.30–0.04 (89%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Edler – Tanev3:32
xG 0.04–0.02 (63%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).