Sun, Mar 3, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Ottawa Senators 2, New York Islanders 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 06 | 111 | 110 | 04 | 0 | 231 |
| NYI | 111 | 012 | 17 | 05 | 2 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:48NYIBrad BoyesAssists: Matt Moulson, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 8:36OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Chris Neil · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 16:31NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Marty Reasoner · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 18:51OTTPatrick WierciochPPAssists: Kyle Turris, Sergei Gonchar · Tip-in, 0.03 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 2. OTT Jakob Silfverberg stopped
- 3. NYI Brad Boyes stopped
- 4. OTT Daniel Alfredsson stopped
- 5. NYI John Tavares scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:43OTTDave Dziurzynski: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:48OTTDave Dziurzynski: Interference2 min
- P2 15:31NYIColin McDonald: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:16OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:07NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:43OTTSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:12NYIKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 4:56OTTAndre Benoit: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Greening – Condra – Zibanejad2:02
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–1
- Regin – Daugavins – O'Brien8:53
xG 0.33–0.43 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Alfredsson – Greening – Turris4:09
xG 0.23–0.34 (41%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Dziurzynski10:06
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Benoit10:27
xG 0.71–0.41 (63%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Phillips2:03
xG 0.13–0.05 (74%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Methot – Gryba17:27
xG 0.40–1.00 (28%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Moulson – Tavares12:15
xG 0.91–0.39 (70%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Reasoner – Grabner – Ullstrom7:09
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey8:55
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas8:44
xG 0.19–0.24 (45%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic10:29
xG 0.82–0.27 (76%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Visnovsky – MacDonald3:22
xG 0.49–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Streit – Hamonic2:22
xG 0.22–0.03 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).