Sun, Mar 3, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Colorado Avalanche 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 05 | 17 | 05 | 02 | 119 |
| CBJ | 08 | 08 | 116 | 12 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:35COLPA ParenteauAssists: Shane O'Brien, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 4:04CBJVinny ProspalPPAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- OT 2:26CBJArtem AnisimovPPGWGAssists: Tim Erixon, Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:42CBJFedor Tyutin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:59COLShane O'Brien: Holding2 min
- P1 12:39COLMilan Hejduk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:36CBJAdrian Aucoin: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:06COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:06CBJDalton Prout: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:31CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:31COLPatrick Bordeleau: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:38COLPatrick Bordeleau: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:37COLMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:53COLShane O'Brien: Interference2 min
- P3 16:53CBJRyan Johansen: Diving2 min
- OT 0:42COLPA Parenteau: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Mitchell – O'Reilly6:31
xG 0.22–0.06 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Parenteau – McGinn – Duchene11:15
xG 0.11–0.28 (28%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Jones – Stastny – Landeskog12:09
xG 0.13–0.38 (25%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – O'Brien11:49
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Barrie2:49
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Hunwick15:16
xG 0.13–0.31 (30%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Foligno – Johansen11:28
xG 0.39–0.15 (73%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Calvert – Atkinson8:56
xG 0.20–0.02 (93%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Prospal – Dorsett – Letestu10:21
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Drazenovic4:10
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoloubef – Erixon2:20
xG 0.38–0.03 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Goloubef12:29
xG 0.46–0.14 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Prout5:46
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).