Sun, Mar 3, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 29 | 113 | 02 | 324 |
| FLA | 012 | 19 | 115 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:08CARJustin FaulkUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 19:08CARAlexander SeminAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Eric Staal · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 6:10CARJordan StaalGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner, Jamie McBain · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 16:05FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Peter Mueller · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 19:05FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Peter Mueller, Brian Campbell · Snap, 0.25 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 12:48FLAErik Gudbranson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:27FLAFilip Kuba: Holding2 min
- P3 5:16CARAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty13:06
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Staal – Wallace – Skinner12:17
xG 0.20–0.27 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Dwyer – Nash10:27
xG 0.21–0.30 (42%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Sutter – Westgarth – Bowman6:35
xG 0.12–0.34 (26%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Gleason16:33
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Harrison – Faulk17:22
xG 0.45–0.52 (46%)attempts 15–20goals 3–0
- McBain – Sanguinetti12:27
xG 0.19–0.51 (27%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMueller – Shore – Huberdeau13:56
xG 0.89–0.11 (89%)attempts 16–5goals 1–1
- Goc – Fleischmann – Skille4:12
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Goc – Skille – Matthias6:55
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Parros – Smithson – Santorelli4:52
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Robak5:01
xG 0.62–0.02 (98%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Yonkman – Robak5:10
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kuba – Gudbranson2:48
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).