Sun, Mar 3, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Montréal Canadiens 4, Boston Bruins 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 214 | 08 | 24 | 426 |
| BOS | 19 | 215 | 010 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:57MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: Michael Ryder, P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 10:47BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 11:03MTLDavid DesharnaisUnassisted · Slap, 0.26 xG2–1
- P2 4:06BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Tyler Seguin, Brad Marchand · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 9:20BOSDougie HamiltonAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 5:31MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Alexei Emelin, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 9:17MTLDavid DesharnaisGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 9:35BOSAndrew Ference: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:50MTLBrendan Gallagher: Charging2 min
- P2 7:47MTLLars Eller: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:53BOSMilan Lucic: Holding2 min
- P2 11:01BOSAdam McQuaid: Interference2 min
- P2 11:51BOSAndrew Ference: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:01BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:01BOSNathan Horton: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:01MTLLars Eller: Holding2 min
- P2 15:01MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:35BOSZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:35BOSZdeno Chara: Instigator2 min
- P2 15:35BOSZdeno Chara: Misconduct10 min
- P2 15:35MTLAlexei Emelin: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:28
xG 1.02–0.27 (79%)attempts 15–11goals 3–0
- Gionta – Prust – Eller10:22
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Ryder – Plekanec – Galchenyuk2:27
xG 0.02–0.19 (9%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Moen – Armstrong – White2:40
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gorges – Subban16:05
xG 0.67–0.67 (50%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
- Kaberle – Bouillon11:30
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban2:04
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin12:49
xG 1.09–0.04 (96%)attempts 19–4goals 2–0
- Pandolfo – Thornton – Campbell4:53
xG 0.25–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic11:12
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Kelly – Paille – Peverley10:39
xG 0.10–0.69 (12%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Boychuk5:56
xG 0.39–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Ference – McQuaid9:43
xG 0.48–0.12 (80%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Hamilton13:06
xG 0.50–0.19 (73%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).