Mon, Mar 4, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Nashville Predators 1, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 05 | 08 | 16 | 119 |
| LAK | 03 | 13 | 410 | 516 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:28LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Jarret Stoll, Slava Voynov · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 4:39LAKJeff CarterGWGAssists: Colin Fraser, Slava Voynov · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 4:58LAKJeff CarterUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 7:40LAKMike RichardsPPAssists: Slava Voynov, Dustin Penner · Slap, 0.06 xG0–4
- P3 10:54LAKDwight KingAssists: Jarret Stoll, Rob Scuderi · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–5
- P3 13:05NSHGabriel BourqueAssists: Shea Weber, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:42LAKJarret Stoll: Interference2 min
- P1 5:11NSHMike Fisher: Holding2 min
- P1 10:48NSHRich Clune: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:49LAKJarret Stoll: Interference2 min
- P2 3:52NSHCraig Smith: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:50LAKJordan Nolan: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:15NSHMartin Erat: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Fisher – Hornqvist – Wilson12:07
xG 0.22–0.31 (42%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Legwand – Erat – Bourque12:07
xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Gaustad – Clune – Halischuk7:05
xG 0.08–0.28 (22%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Kostitsyn – Spaling – Smith8:59
xG 0.12–0.42 (23%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hannan – Ellis14:01
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Klein – Blum10:05
xG 0.08–0.25 (25%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi16:59
xG 0.37–0.69 (35%)attempts 12–12goals 1–2
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Lewis – King10:01
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Carter – Richards – Penner7:57
xG 0.34–0.09 (79%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan9:50
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Brown – Kopitar2:00
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty14:05
xG 0.80–0.21 (79%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Voynov18:11
xG 0.47–0.44 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Martinez – Ellerby12:23
xG 0.24–0.27 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).