Tue, Mar 5, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Montréal Canadiens 3, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 114 | 19 | 332 |
| NYI | 06 | 39 | 39 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:21MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Michael Ryder · Snap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 1:23NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Mark Streit, Frans Nielsen · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 12:10NYIMatt MartinPPAssists: Brad Boyes, John Tavares · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 12:58NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Thomas Hickey, Colin McDonald · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 16:49MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Michael Ryder · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 6:07MTLBrian GiontaPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Michael Ryder · Deflected, 0.30 xG3–3
- P3 7:56NYIRadek MartinekGWGAssists: Kyle Okposo, Thomas Hickey · Snap, 0.20 xG3–4
- P3 18:53NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 19:43NYIColin McDonaldENAssists: Matt Martin, Casey Cizikas · Snap, 0.77 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 17:47NYITravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:50MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:49MTLAlexei Emelin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:47MTLRyan White: Holding2 min
- P2 11:11MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:47NYIAndrew MacDonald: Holding2 min
- P2 16:28NYIMark Streit: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:18NYIJohn Tavares: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 4:30NYIDavid Ullstrom: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 15:38MTLBrendan Gallagher: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Ryder – Plekanec4:01
xG 0.29–0.14 (67%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Gionta – Prust – Eller7:32
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Moen – Armstrong – White6:22
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Prust – Eller – Galchenyuk3:37
xG 0.06–0.19 (24%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban13:55
xG 0.30–0.01 (96%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Markov – Emelin15:40
xG 0.91–0.86 (52%)attempts 22–15goals 1–0
- Gorges – Emelin2:36
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Moulson – Tavares13:00
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey10:23
xG 0.72–0.45 (62%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Reasoner – Grabner – Ullstrom6:32
xG 0.11–0.02 (88%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas9:20
xG 0.00–0.70 (0%)attempts 2–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Finley14:08
xG 0.76–0.33 (69%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic17:15
xG 0.69–0.64 (52%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Martinek – Hickey10:41
xG 0.44–0.46 (49%)attempts 9–11goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).