Tue, Mar 5, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Boston Bruins 3, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 39 | 09 | 015 | 00 | 333 |
| WSH | 06 | 211 | 18 | 11 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:29BOSBrad MarchandUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 17:07BOSZdeno CharaAssists: David Krejci, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 18:30BOSDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Nathan Horton, David Krejci · Slap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 5:46WSHMike RibeiroAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Steve Oleksy · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 11:32WSHTomas KundratekAssists: Eric Fehr, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 13:55WSHWojtek WolskiAssists: Eric Fehr, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 0:37WSHEric FehrGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Tomas Kundratek · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:51BOSTyler Seguin: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:29WSHAlex Ovechkin: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 17:09WSHJohn Erskine: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 17:09BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:15WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P2 8:05BOSShawn Thornton: Interference2 min
- P2 17:43BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:30BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:33WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic12:48
xG 0.61–0.26 (70%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille8:01
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin13:30
xG 0.55–0.67 (45%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Kelly – Bourque – Peverley6:27
xG 0.14–0.41 (25%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Boychuk6:31
xG 0.67–0.26 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Chara – McQuaid6:27
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Boychuk4:57
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Wolski – Backstrom13:38
xG 0.59–0.26 (69%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Ribeiro – Hendricks – Ovechkin12:32
xG 0.57–0.55 (51%)attempts 11–23goals 1–0
- Crabb – Perreault – Volpatti3:01
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Beagle11:40
xG 0.44–0.68 (39%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPoti – Oleksy8:15
xG 0.58–0.29 (67%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Alzner – Kundratek17:04
xG 0.93–0.82 (53%)attempts 24–20goals 1–0
- Erskine – Carlson16:36
xG 0.44–0.74 (37%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).