Tue, Mar 5, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Edmonton Oilers 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 27 | 17 | 012 | 03 | 0 | 329 |
| CBJ | 214 | 110 | 013 | 01 | 2 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:23EDMJeff PetryAssists: Eric Belanger, Ryan Jones · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 7:54CBJDerek MacKenzieAssists: Jared Boll, Tim Erixon · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 13:45CBJVinny ProspalPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P1 18:43EDMRyan WhitneyAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 0:31EDMMagnus PaajarviAssists: Sam Gagner, Jordan Eberle · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 10:44CBJJack JohnsonAssists: Derick Brassard, Vinny Prospal · Snap, 0.15 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Artem Anisimov scored
- 2. EDM Sam Gagner stopped
- 3. CBJ Cam Atkinson stopped
- 4. EDM Ales Hemsky stopped
- 5. CBJ Mark Letestu scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:57EDMRyan Whitney: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:24EDMJeff Petry: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:24CBJMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:24CBJMatt Calvert: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 15:57EDMNail Yakupov: Holding2 min
- P2 12:45EDMBen Eager: Boarding2 min
- P3 3:33CBJDalton Prout: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:18CBJDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:28EDMNail Yakupov: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:25CBJNick Foligno: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins10:23
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Gagner – Eberle – Paajarvi10:02
xG 0.65–0.63 (51%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Smyth – Eager – Brown6:39
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Belanger – Jones – Yakupov7:37
xG 0.02–0.18 (11%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry13:54
xG 0.55–0.47 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Smid – Schultz2:11
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Whitney – Potter11:21
xG 0.22–0.44 (34%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Boll – Brassard3:42
xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen8:24
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Calvert – Atkinson3:17
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Anisimov – Atkinson2:28
xG 0.01–0.03 (29%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Goloubef11:24
xG 0.47–0.31 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Goloubef – Prout2:03
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson2:19
xG 0.07–0.04 (61%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).