Tue, Mar 5, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Winnipeg Jets 1, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 15 | 018 | 131 |
| FLA | 19 | 29 | 18 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:07FLATomas KopeckyAssists: Marcel Goc, Tomas Fleischmann · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 1:42WPGKyle WellwoodAssists: Andrew Ladd, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 9:55FLAShawn MatthiasGWGAssists: Colby Robak, Tomas Fleischmann · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 14:50FLAJonathan HuberdeauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P3 3:43FLAMike SantorelliAssists: Brian Campbell, Erik Gudbranson · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 16:42WPGAndrew Ladd: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:50WPGDustin Byfuglien: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 16:08WPGEvander Kane: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smithson won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Antropov – Kane2:11
xG 0.31–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ladd – Little – Kane2:27
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Wellwood – Slater – Tangradi5:58
xG 0.16–0.04 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Miettinen – Wellwood – Slater3:34
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Byfuglien – Clitsome19:38
xG 0.64–0.60 (52%)attempts 23–14goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian17:15
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Stuart – Postma14:41
xG 0.14–0.50 (22%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMueller – Shore – Huberdeau13:35
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Smithson – Santorelli – Matthias2:03
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- Parros – Smithson – Santorelli6:30
xG 0.04–0.03 (62%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Skille – Matthias – Rheault12:25
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Strachan21:35
xG 0.79–0.46 (63%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Kuba – Gudbranson17:20
xG 0.39–0.67 (37%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
- Yonkman – Robak9:49
xG 0.09–0.43 (18%)attempts 5–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).