Tue, Mar 5, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Minnesota Wild 3, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 16 | 04 | 213 | 323 |
| CHI | 417 | 011 | 14 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:22MINDevin SetoguchiAssists: Matt Cullen, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–0
- P1 13:02CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Jonathan Toews, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 13:46CHIBryan BickellAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P1 17:12CHIBryan BickellAssists: Brandon Saad, Marcus Kruger · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P1 18:45CHIMarian HossaGWGAssists: Brandon Saad, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 3:10MINRyan SuterPPAssists: Dany Heatley, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 10:32MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Mike Rupp · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–4
- P3 11:33CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Patrick Sharp, Dave Bolland · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:46CHIDave Bolland: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:58MINMatt Cullen: Interference2 min
- P2 9:44MINJonas Brodin: Interference2 min
- P2 17:30MINJustin Falk: Holding2 min
- P3 1:57CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Setoguchi – Zucker11:03
xG 0.84–0.14 (86%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Rupp – Brodziak – Mitchell7:38
xG 0.43–0.20 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle12:38
xG 0.25–0.69 (27%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
- Heatley – Bouchard – Granlund10:33
xG 0.35–0.83 (30%)attempts 6–13goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon2:51
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Falk13:35
xG 1.26–1.06 (54%)attempts 12–19goals 2–2
- Stoner – Spurgeon12:15
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad10:56
xG 0.72–0.15 (82%)attempts 16–4goals 2–0
- Sharp – Bolland – Kane14:05
xG 0.72–0.42 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Carcillo – Kruger – Bollig4:29
xG 0.07–0.21 (26%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Bickell – Stalberg – Shaw12:03
xG 0.34–1.04 (25%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson15:25
xG 0.84–0.37 (70%)attempts 19–10goals 2–0
- Keith – Seabrook16:38
xG 0.86–0.86 (50%)attempts 17–11goals 2–2
- Rozsival – Leddy12:45
xG 0.39–0.49 (44%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).